Abiy and his Amhara supporters are in the ascendancy – but Ethiopia’s future is by no means assured. Nominally in an effort to restore law and order, the federal government led by Ethiopia’s peace prize-winning premier is engaged in a brutal conflict with the defiant erstwhile leaders of Tigray region.
Published in partnership with Ethiopia Insight
Tens of thousands of refugees have fled, militias have hacked civilians to death, and an unknown number of lives have been lost. Despite Abiy Ahmed’s quick-win claims, he has plunged the country into what is likely to be a prolonged civil war that may exacerbate others and even tear the country apart.
Late on 3 November, with the world glued to the U.S.’s electoral theatrics, Abiy said Tigray’s forces attacked the military, and he adapted the Powell Doctrine for limited war. He informed Ethiopians that he sent federal forces in with clear, limited, and achievable objectives to restore the rule of law and constitutional order.
While sudden, the outbreak of full-blown conflict did not surprise observers of Ethiopian politics. The long-simmering tensions between the premier and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) were there for all to see. The parties had openly prepared their forces for armed confrontation. The question is, why has Ethiopia returned to war to settle political disagreements?
Mismanaged transition
Two years ago, a popular uprising, mainly in Oromia and Amhara regions, brought the country to the brink of collapse. To avoid the Ethiopian state’s disintegration, the reform architects agreed for the transition-to-democracy to be led by the ruling party itself, with new faces taking the helm. Hence, from the outset, it was apparent that the change would be nothing but ‘old wine in a new bottle’.
READ MORE Can Ethiopia heal after the TPLF killings? ‘We cannot bury everyone’ says ENDF
“Reform from within” was preferred to “revolution” to avoid a state collapse since TPLF controlled the national intelligence, military, and various state apparatus. Hence, if “revolution” was chosen, the architects, such as Jawar Mohammed, believed, it would have proved to be bloody, tearing apart Ethiopia.